The core loop

What is Futures Study, in one paragraph?

You capture something real you encountered — an article, a post, something you noticed at work. The app walks you through the reasoning frameworks professional forecasters use. You commit to a falsifiable prediction with a confidence level and a resolution date. When the date arrives, you record what actually happened — and over time the app shows you how well your stated confidence matches reality. Capture → frame → predict → resolve → calibrate.

Which frameworks are included?

All six, fully written: the Cone of Possibility (the two-minute Quick Take), the STEEP Horizon Scan (its questions adapt to the domains you tagged), the Futures Wheel (second- and third-order consequences), the Assumption Audit (a pre-mortem for your reasoning), Base Rates & Reference Class, and Scenario Planning (the classic 2×2). Every question was written by a human editor — there is no AI anywhere in the app. A glossary explaining each one lives in Settings → Learn.

Can I run more than one framework on the same entry?

Yes — two ways. In the moment: after finishing a framework, choose “Run another framework first” before committing your prediction. Later: open any entry → menu → Run a framework. Re-running a framework you’ve already done pre-fills your old answers so you can revise them rather than duplicate them.

Do I have to write a full entry every time?

No. For a fast, Fatebook-style falsifiable one-liner, use Quick prediction: long-press the + button on the Timeline, or tap the bolt in Follow-Up. Statement, confidence, date — ten seconds. Quick predictions join the inbox and count toward your calibration like any other.

Predictions & follow-up

How do resolutions work?

When a prediction’s date arrives it appears in the Follow-Up tab (and fires a reminder that morning). You write what actually happened, judge it against your own criteria — True, False, Partially true, or Unresolvable — and note what you missed. Unresolvable predictions are logged transparently but never count against your calibration.

What does the confidence slider’s “track record” line mean?

Once you’ve resolved at least three predictions in a confidence band, the app shows your actual hit rate at that level while you’re committing to a new one — “your record at 70–79%: right 55% of the time.” It’s your own history talking you into (or out of) a number, at exactly the right moment.

What is the Calibration tab telling me?

The curve compares what you said (stated confidence) with what happened (actual hit rate). Perfect calibration is the diagonal. The Brier score summarizes the same idea in one number: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is what always answering “50%” would score, lower is better. Below that, breakdowns by confidence band and by STEEP domain show where specifically your judgment runs hot or cold. Partially-true outcomes count as half credit.

My reminder didn’t fire.

Check iOS Settings → Notifications → Futures Study is allowed, and the reminder hour in the app’s Settings tab. If notifications are off, the app still works — the badge and Follow-Up inbox track everything. Reminders for several predictions due the same day arrive as a single digest.

Capturing

How do I capture from Safari or other apps?

Use the share sheet: tap Share on any page or post → Futures Study. (First time: scroll the share sheet’s app row to the end, tap More/Edit, and enable Futures Study.) The capture lands in a “waiting to be framed” section at the top of your Timeline, ready to run through a framework when you have two minutes.

I closed the app mid-entry. Did I lose my writing?

No. Drafts save automatically as you type — several can coexist. The next time you tap +, you’ll be offered “Resume” — it returns you to the exact question you were on, including a half-written prediction.

What are the STEEP tags?

Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political — the five domains horizon-scanners use to classify signals. Tags do real work: the STEEP framework asks only about the domains you tagged, the Timeline filters by them, and the Calibration tab breaks your accuracy down by domain so you can see your blind spots.

Can I find entries from the iOS search screen?

Yes — entries are indexed in Spotlight (on your device only). Swipe down on the home screen and search; tapping a result opens that entry directly.

Devices & your data

Which devices does it run on?

iPhone and iPad, with a home-screen widget (“Due This Week”) and an Apple Watch companion that shows what’s due at a glance. Resolution and writing happen on the phone — deliberately; this is a thinking tool, not a wrist notification farm. A native Mac version is built and planned for release.

Does it sync between devices?

Not yet — everything is stored locally on each device, by design. Optional iCloud sync (your personal iCloud, private database, no account with us) is planned. Until then, move data with Settings → Export / Import.

Can I bring my predictions over from Fatebook or a spreadsheet?

Yes. Settings → Import predictions from CSV reads a Fatebook export — or any spreadsheet with question/forecast/resolve-by columns. Resolved questions arrive resolved, so your track record and calibration history carry over. Importing the same file twice won’t create duplicates.

How do backups work?

Settings → Export everything as JSON produces a single file with every entry, answer, prediction, and resolution — that’s your backup and your restore path on a new phone (via Import). There’s also a CSV export for spreadsheet analysis. Your data is never locked in.

What happens to the sample entries?

The three entries marked SAMPLE exist so the app isn’t empty on day one — a completed calibration cycle, a pending prediction, and one that resolved False, because being wrong productively is the skill this app trains. Swipe to delete them whenever you like.

Is there a subscription?

No. Futures Study is a one-time purchase — every feature included, forever. No accounts, no ads, no tracking, no upsells.

Is my journal private?

Completely. No accounts, no analytics, no server. The only network request the app ever makes is fetching the title of a link you pasted. Read the two-minute privacy policy — it’s genuinely short because there’s genuinely nothing collected.

Still stuck?

Email support@hessamzahedi.com with your device model, iOS version, and what happened — screenshots welcome. Since there’s no server and no account, your data is only on your device, so please don’t delete the app while troubleshooting; export a backup first.