Futures Study
A training gym for judgment about the future.
Take something real you just read or noticed, reason about it the way professional forecasters do, commit to a falsifiable prediction — and find out, over time, how good your judgment actually is.
Get it on the App Store One-time purchase · No subscription · No account · No AICapture · Frame · Predict · Resolve · Calibrate
Most journals ask how you feel. This one asks what happens next.
Every entry starts with the world — an article, a post, a price change, a hiring trend you spotted at work. Share it straight from Safari, or jot it as an observation. Then the app walks you through the actual mental frameworks that forecasters, intelligence analysts, and futurists use — one carefully written question per screen, in an interface built like a well-typeset field manual.
The questions are smart because a human wrote them with editorial care — not because a model generated them. There is no AI anywhere in this app.
Six frameworks, fully written
Cone of Possibility
~2 min · the Quick Take
Probable, plausible, possible, preferred — and the bridge between what you want and what’s likely.
STEEP Horizon Scan
~4 min · adapts to your tags
Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political — and where the signal spills next.
Futures Wheel
~4 min
Push past the obvious first effect into second- and third-order consequences.
Assumption Audit
~3 min
A pre-mortem for your forecast: what breaks your reasoning, and what evidence would change your mind.
Base Rates
~3 min
Has something structurally like this happened before? Forecast from history, not headlines.
Scenario Planning
~5 min · the classic 2×2
Cross two independent uncertainties into four futures — and find the one you’re least prepared for.
Run one framework per sitting, chain several into a full workout, or come back days later and go deeper on the same entry. In a hurry? Quick prediction logs a falsifiable one-liner in ten seconds.
The payoff: your calibration, measured
Every prediction carries a confidence level, a resolution date, and your own written bar for what counts as true. When the date arrives, the app asks what actually happened — and your answer feeds a personal calibration curve: when you say 80%, are you right 80% of the time?
- Calibration curve against the perfect diagonal, plus a Brier score in plain language
- Breakdowns by confidence band and by STEEP domain — see where your judgment runs hot
- Your own track record shown live under the slider while you commit to a new number
- Morning reminders on resolution day; a glanceable inbox on your Apple Watch and home-screen widget
Being wrong productively is the point. One of the built-in sample entries is wrong on purpose — so you can see what an honest miss looks like before you make your own.
Private by architecture, not by promise
No account. No server. No analytics. No ads. Your journal lives on your device; the App Store privacy label reads Data Not Collected because there is nothing to collect it with. Export everything as JSON or CSV any time — and import your track record from Fatebook or any spreadsheet. Your data is never locked in.
Read the privacy policy — it’s two minutes, because there’s genuinely nothing collected.
Built for people who keep score of their own thinking
If you’ve read Superforecasting, track predictions in a spreadsheet, or just suspect your feed is making you confidently wrong — this is the instrument.
Get Futures Study iPhone · iPad · Apple Watch — one-time purchase